What is the track record of OECD Economic Projections ?

Twice a year, the OECD publishes projections for the world economy in the context of the OECD Economic Outlook. These projections are based on a number of key assumptions regarding economic policy and the international environment. They are used to assess future trends in the world economy, evaluate outstanding risks and make recommendations on appropriate economic policies. To be helpful for the policy discussions, these projections attempt to have a good forecasting performance, although predictions can never be entirely accurate. The track record of these projections is periodically assessed both by the OECD and outside observers. A recent article published in the Sveriges Riksbank’s Economic Review suggests that OECD projections have a lower forecasting performance than those published by the private sector. The present note shows that the method used by the authors of the Riksbank’s article has several flaws, in particular regarding the Economic Outlook’s publication dates. Once corrected, OECD projections appear to be better than average.